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Prediction for CME (2023-12-12T00:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-12T00:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28120/-1
CME Note: Extremely faint partial halo CME in the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 difference imagery only. Its source might very tentatively be the mid-size filament eruption starting around 2023-12-11T22:01Z and centered around ~W05N05, just N of the central (equatorial) coronal hole. The eruption is seen as a mid-size dimming area in AIA 193. Arrival signature of what is likely the combined shock of this and 2023-12-13T00:00Z CME (or just of the 2023-12-13T00:00 CME): a sharp increase in B total to initially to under 15nT and eventually to over 23nT, with rapid fluctuations of all magnetic field components. This is accompanied by a jump in solar wind speed at first from under 300 to 400 km/s, further increasing to just under 550 km/s (possibly the arrival of and a sharp increase in ion density and temperature. There is also a matching arrival at STEREO A.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-15T10:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-15T11:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Dec 13 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

 

Solar Activity

 

.24 hr Summary...
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Coronal dimming was observed in GOES-16 SUVI 195 imagery, starting at
approximately 11/2220 UTC near Region 3514. A subsequent, very faint,
partial halo CME front was then seen in NASA C2 coronagraph imagery at
approximately 11/2348 UTC, propagating in a north westerly manner. An
additional dimming event was observed in GOES-16 SUVI 195 imagery
following the C9 flare from Region 3514. An extremely narrow, jet-like
CME was then seen in NASA C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately
12/0424 UTC. While being low confidence, the first event was modeled and
determined to be on the Sun-Earth line with an arrival time of mid to
late day on 15 Dec. The second event was modeled and determined to be a
miss ahead of Earth's orbit. However, it too is low confidence as there
may be two separate events occurring during that time frame or shortly
thereafter, and there is some ambiguity as to the source location.

Lead Time: 77.77 hour(s)
Difference: -0.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-12-12T05:11Z

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